How to turn your controlling plan into a reliable cash flow forecast
This article is written by Nomentia Treasury departments often lack structured cash flow data for rolling and monthly planning. However, an adjacent department often has exactly what treasurers need. In this article, Alexander Fleischmann explains how existing controlling plans can be efficiently converted into cash flows to derive accurate, rolling liquidity forecasts – with less manual effort, higher quality and improved transparency throughout the entire planning process. About the author As Market Development Executive at Nomentia, Alexander Fleischmann is part of the sales team and looks after customers within and outside the DACH region. Alex began his career in treasury consulting before moving to the provider side, initially as a project manager for TMS implementations. In times of economic uncertainty, the importance of sound cash flow forecasting for maintaining a company’s financial health can hardly be overstated. The real question is no longer why it’s important, but how best to approach it. Once the goal moves beyond short-term visibility of current receivables and payables, many companies find they lack the structured cash flow data needed to support monthly or rolling forecasts. Gathering this information from various departments and entities—typically using Excel spreadsheets—is not only time-consuming, but also prone to error. So why not use a data source that already exists in every company? Controlling plans serve as the foundation for many internal decisions. While they may not include exact payment dates and are usually limited to a single currency, they do contain all the expenses and revenues that are relevant for cash flow forecasting too. This creates a valuable opportunity for treasurers: by converting controlling data into cash flows, they can establish a solid basis for reliable forecasts. To transform a controlling plan into a cash flow forecast, the data first needs to be broken down and categorized by type and expected payment date. Take Company X as an example: 80% of its monthly planned revenue comes from external sources and 20% from intercompany transactions. Of the external revenue, 30% is domestic and 70% comes from exports—which can then be further segmented by country and currency. The same level of detail applies to material costs, personnel expenses, and other operating costs. Equally crucial is determining when the actual cash flows will occur. Budget forecasts don’t typically account for the timing of when planned revenues actually turn into cash. Treasurers therefore, need to work closely with financial managers across business units to determine how long after the budgeted date cash flows are expected to occur. These so-called monetization factors convert budgeted figures into actual expected cash movements and must be defined in close cooperation with all relevant stakeholders. However, once these rules are in place, the forecasting process becomes significantly more streamlined. Nomentia successfully implemented this approach with one of our clients: together, we defined the monetization factors and imported them into the Nomentia cash flow forecasting module. The system now automatically translates incoming controlling data into forecasted cash flows. The result? More time to validate forecasts, improved forecast accuracy, and—last but not least—a noticeable increase in cash awareness across local entities thanks to the collaborative development process. Whether you’re relying on complex Excel models, using AI, or transforming existing revenue plans, there are many paths to building a reliable cash flow forecast. But one thing is clear: to achieve greater efficiency, transparency, and accuracy in forecasting, a unified, integrated platform is essential—one that makes forecasts visible across the organization and offers deep insights through meaningful reporting. More Posts from Nomentia Join our Treasury Community Treasury Mastermind is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below to get more information. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.
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What does commodity volatility mean for treasurers?
From Treasury Masterminds Commodity prices are allergic to calm. Oil sneezes because of geopolitics, gas panics over weather, and metals react to China waking up on the wrong side of the bed. None of this is new. What is new is how directly this volatility punches treasurers in the face. Once upon a time, commodities were “someone else’s problem”. Procurement worried about prices, operations worried about supply, treasury quietly handled cash and FX in the background. That fairy tale is over. Volatility turns cost risk into cash risk When commodity prices swing hard, working capital follows. Higher input prices mean more cash tied up in inventory, higher margin calls on hedges, and sudden pressure on liquidity buffers. Forecasts that looked perfectly fine last quarter suddenly resemble abstract art. For treasurers, this means cash forecasting becomes less about precision and more about resilience. Scenarios matter more than point estimates. Stress testing is no longer a luxury reserved for banks with too much time. Hedging is no longer a checkbox Commodity hedging used to be about smoothing P&L. Now it directly affects liquidity. Margining, collateral requirements, and hedge timing can create real cash drains at exactly the wrong moment. Treasurers need to understand: If treasury is not involved early in commodity hedging decisions, the result is usually surprise cash outflows followed by awkward meetings. Inflation, FX, and commodities are dating Commodity volatility rarely travels alone. It drags inflation and FX along with it. Energy prices impact inflation, inflation drives rates, rates affect funding costs, and FX happily amplifies everything. For treasurers, this convergence means risks can no longer be managed in silos. A commodity shock can hit: Treating these separately is comfortable but dangerous. Data and visibility are suddenly strategic Volatile commodities expose weak data setups very quickly. If treasury relies on monthly updates, spreadsheets, or “best guesses from procurement”, volatility will always arrive before insight does. Treasurers don’t need perfect data. They need timely, connected data: This is where treasury earns its seat at the table, not by predicting prices, but by explaining consequences. So what should treasurers actually do? No, treasurers are not expected to become commodity traders. The value lies elsewhere: Commodity volatility is not going away. If anything, it enjoys the chaos too much. For treasurers, the message is simple and slightly annoying: commodities are now part of the core risk conversation. Ignoring them does not make them disappear. It just guarantees they will show up at the worst possible time. And treasury will, of course, be asked why no one saw it coming. Also Read Join our Treasury Community Treasury Mastermind is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below to get more information. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.