Stablecoins After the GENIUS Act: From Niche to Necessity for Treasurers?
From Treasury Masterminds When the GENIUS Act was introduced, the political narrative centered on making cryptocurrency easier for payments. What slipped under the radar: the massive surge in stablecoin adoption. In particular, USDC volumes spiked, showing that corporates and institutions didn’t just watch from the sidelines—they began using it. For years, stablecoins sat in a strange corner of finance: too “crypto” for corporates, too “fiat” for the crypto crowd. But the GENIUS Act may have tipped the balance. Regulatory clarity + easier on/off ramps = usage. Why Stablecoins Are Gaining Traction The adoption data doesn’t lie: stablecoins—especially USDC—are no longer a niche experiment. Use Cases for Treasurers Let’s get practical. What could a corporate treasurer actually do with stablecoins? Can Treasurers Still Ignore Stablecoins? Short answer: No. Even if you’re not ready to jump in, the momentum is undeniable. Waiting it out is like saying in 2005, “We’ll stick to fax, this email thing won’t last.” So treasurers face a choice:👉 Treat stablecoins as “noise” until clients and suppliers force the issue.👉 Or experiment early, build policies, and be ready when adoption hits your business. Our 2 Cents Stablecoins aren’t replacing fiat or traditional FX anytime soon. But they’re carving out a role in payments, liquidity, and even investment. Treasurers who explore the rails now will be better positioned when stablecoins stop being “alternative” and start being expected. The GENIUS Act may have been the starting gun. The question is: how long can corporate treasury afford to stand at the starting line? Also Read Join our Treasury Community Treasury Mastermind is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below to get more information. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.
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Measuring Currency Risks – What is Behind CFaR and its Cousins
This article is written by HedgeFlows Quantifying FX risk is one of the most challenging aspects of foreign exchange risk management. To determine whether managing currency risk is worthwhile, it’s essential to understand exactly what you’re protecting against. This knowledge is key to making informed decisions. While large multinational corporations often rely on concepts like Value at Risk (VaR), Cash Flow at Risk (CFaR), or Earnings at Risk (EaR) through their dedicated treasury or risk departments, these tools are less familiar and uncommon for smaller businesses with leaner finance teams. This article dives into the theory behind risk metrics and explains how to use them. Making sense of randomness Measuring FX risks is based on the notion that exchange rates move randomly over time, and the changes in the value of currencies over a specific period of time have different likelihoods. This likelihood is distributed in a manner close to a normal distribution. For example, the graph below shows the historical distribution of 90-day moves of the Pound Sterling vs the US Dollar (grey) and its modelled distribution, which is normally distributed. As one can see, most potential outcomes are small moves clustered around zero, but in rare outcomes, the exchange rate moved more than 20% over 90 days. Asking the right question So, what is the right measure to use in order to quantify FX risks in a small business? It depends on what you want and what you’re trying to answer. In FX risk management, there is a big difference between asking the question, “What is the maximum I could lose due to foreign exchange?” and “What could I potentially lose on foreign exchange?” The former question emphasises the risks posed by rare but often catastrophic events – situations that occur infrequently yet have significant consequences when they do. These are the kinds of events that make headlines and can push businesses to the brink of collapse. Take, for instance, the aftermath of the Brexit vote, which triggered a sharp decline in the value of the Pound Sterling, or the more recent crisis during Liz Truss’ government, which temporarily plunged the Pound to multi-decade lows. Such events are notoriously hard to predict and, as a result, are not typically reflected in prevailing exchange rates. When they do occur, however, they can cause sudden and extreme market volatility, leading to lasting financial damage. Tools like Value-at-Risk, Cashflows-at-Risk, or Earnings-at-Risk are specifically designed to measure and account for these risks. However, because these moves are so rare, many businesses often ignore them until they have a real impact and become a topic of purposeful discussion. Hence, while knowing the maximum potential loss is essential, many CFOs are often more interested in more likely potential outcomes that can still have an impact on their business. The stability of cash flows or profit margins is often an implicit or explicit hedging objective, and even a 5% FX move can often have a sizeable impact on one’s cash flows. Because moves of such magnitude are a lot more likely to happen, it is not surprising that the jump in likelihood often makes such potential moves a lot more “real” to CFOs and their teams, and this is easier to relate to and thus manage. For example, as shown on the graph below, the likelihood of an FX move of 4% or greater is 20 times higher (probability of 20%) than that of 14.5% (probability of 1%). Different risks but the same solution Select the risk metric that best aligns with your business objectives and feels most intuitive to your needs. Fortunately, for most companies, this decision won’t affect the overall solution. FX forwards continue to be the preferred hedging instrument. You may have noticed that we refer to more minor, more probable outcomes as a move of “X% or greater.” This phrasing reflects that these outcomes represent not a specific point but a range of possibilities (losses) that extend beyond that threshold. If you choose to mitigate these risks, you will also reduce the risks of larger, less probable outcomes. If, for example, you decide to hedge 50% of your exposure with FX forwards, the potential losses will halve, no matter which risk metric you choose. Also Read Join our Treasury Community Treasury Masterminds is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below to get more information. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.
Inside the Minds of Top CFOs: Tips for Building Resilient Finance Teams in High-growth Companies
This article is a contribution from one of our content partners, Bound Fast-growing companies mean fast-moving demands, and no one feels that more than the finance team. At our recent CFO Breakfast for Growth, we brought together a panel of three seasoned CFOs to share their strategies for handling the financial and operational pressures that come with scaling. Meet the experts From keeping cash flow under control to navigating tricky board dynamics, here’s what these experts had to say about building teams that thrive under pressure: 1. Build a team that complements you The CFO role is evolving, and no one can do it alone. Our panellists emphasised hiring team members who excel where you don’t, especially in technical and analytical areas. This approach allows CFOs to focus on strategy, knowing that the day-to-day is in good hands. Pro tip: Identify where you add the most value and hire for the gaps. A balanced team is essential for navigating high-growth challenges with confidence. 2. Keep cash flow management tight and transparent Cash flow was a hot topic…no surprises in a room full of CFOs! All panellists agreed: daily visibility into cash flow is non-negotiable, along with strong collection processes and clean balance sheets. With investors scrutinising financial transparency at every stage – often earlier than you’d expect– robust, clear records are essential. Pro tip: Take a proactive approach to cash flow. Maintain investor-ready records and anticipate their questions – this will only strengthen your negotiating position. 3. Aim for fewer, larger fundraising rounds If you’re in a high-growth company, the panellists recommended minimising the frequency of fundraising rounds to reduce distractions. Larger rounds mean a longer runway, giving you room to focus on growth rather than constantly seeking investment. Pro tip: Where possible, opt for bigger rounds that support sustainable growth and keep the cap table lean. It’s a more efficient, powerful approach that reduces the operational impact of fundraising. 4. Stick to financial tools that flex with you Despite a range of new tech options, the panel agreed: nothing beats Excel (or Google Sheets) for its flexibility. Adaptable, powerful, and easily shareable, Excel remains a go-to for financial modelling in fast-changing environments. But AI tools are showing promise too, with banks using them for enhanced due diligence. Pro tip: Pick tools that provide adaptability for long-term planning, and explore AI options that could streamline reporting and data analysis. 5. Mastering board dynamics and cap table simplicity Strong board relationships were another hot topic. The panel’s advice? Consistent, clear communication about KPIs and performance to align different investor interests. They also noted that a simplified cap table can help keep everyone on the same page. Pro tip: Prioritise transparency with your board, and maintain a cap table structure that promotes alignment rather than division among shareholders. Always be prepared For CFOs leading high-growth companies, resilience is all about building a capable team, mastering cash flow, and aligning board dynamics. The insights from our panel offer a practical guide to managing these challenges with confidence and agility. Whether it’s integrating flexible financial tools, simplifying your cap table, or keeping cash flow processes rock-solid, these strategies will help you build a finance team that’s ready for anything. Recommended Reading Join our Treasury Community Treasury Masterminds is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.
Atlar and HSBC Innovation Banking Collaborate to Support Fast-Scaling Companies Like Joint Customer Liberis
This is a press release from our partner, Atlar New integration gives companies like Liberis real-time visibility and control over treasury, directly within the Atlar platform Atlar and HSBC Innovation Banking UK have entered into a collaboration to support the treasury management needs of fast-growing and innovative companies. The partnership brings together HSBC Innovation Banking UK’s global banking infrastructure and Atlar’s modern treasury platform to streamline cash management, enhance visibility, and improve control for finance teams operating at scale. A connected, real-time treasury stack for high-growth companies Joint customers of HSBC Innovation Banking and Atlar benefit from a more connected, automated, and real-time treasury setup—fully integrated with modern ERP systems where needed. Going beyond a standard connection, this partnership unlocks a seamless solution powered by real-time APIs. Atlar’s API integration with HSBC Innovation allows customers to connect their accounts in minutes—accelerating onboarding and making treasury management more efficient. Key benefits include: Liberis: Automating treasury for an embedded finance pioneer One company already realising the value of this partnership is Liberis, a global embedded finance platform that provides personalised funding solutions to small businesses through its network of partners. With operations in Europe and North America, Liberis has funded over $2.5 billion to more than 60,000 small businesses since 2007. By connecting its HSBC accounts to Atlar, Liberis has gained real-time visibility across cash positions and streamlined key treasury workflows like payment runs and cash flow forecasting—freeing up its finance team to focus on strategic decision-making. The platform plays a central role in managing liquidity and ensuring control across entities. “With Atlar and HSBC Innovation Banking, we’ve built a treasury setup that gives us real-time visibility, better control, and the flexibility to support our growth across markets.” — Sean Fanning, Finance Director at Liberis “This collaboration brings together the best of both worlds: HSBC Innovation Banking’s global banking capabilities and Atlar’s modern treasury technology. Together, we’re helping fast-scaling companies automate manual processes and gain the visibility they need to scale with confidence.” — Joel Nordström, Co-founder and CEO at Atlar “At HSBC Innovation Banking UK, we work with some of the most ambitious and innovative companies in the world. Partnering with Atlar enables us to offer our joint customers a more seamless and efficient treasury experience, with real-time connectivity and automation at its core.” — David McHenry, Head of Treasury and Trade Solutions at HSBC Innovation Banking UK The collaboration reflects a shared commitment to supporting businesses with the tools and infrastructure needed to operate efficiently and grow with confidence. Together, Atlar and HSBC Innovation Banking are helping finance teams navigate increasing complexity and take control of their treasury. For more information about how Atlar works with HSBC Innovation Banking UK, get in touch. About Atlar Atlar is the modern treasury management system for the new economy — giving scaling finance teams real-time visibility and control through a single platform connected to their banks and ERPs. By managing these connections, Atlar accelerates time-to-value and simplifies complex financial infrastructure. Ambitious, tech-driven companies like Forto, GetYourGuide, Mangopay, Storytel, Tide, and Zilch rely on Atlar to automate cash management, payments, and forecasting through powerful, user-friendly tools. Backed by world-leading investors Index Ventures and General Catalyst, Atlar is also a preferred partner of industry leaders, including NetSuite, Citi, and Nordea. About HSBC Innovation Banking HSBC Innovation Banking provides commercial banking services, expertise, and insights to the technology, life science and healthcare, private equity, and venture capital industries. HSBC Innovation Bank Limited is a subsidiary of HSBC Group, benefiting from its stability, strong credit rating, and international reach to help fuel its growth. Also Read
The 4 E’s of Micro-Hedging Programs
This article is written by Kantox This blog explains the nuts and bolts of micro-hedging programs and the benefits they provide to corporations. By using micro-hedging programs —either on a standalone basis or in combination with other programs—, finance teams are in a unique position to: So let’s dive in and explain how companies can profit from these four E’s. Eliminate FX risk. Enhance control. Earn more. Embrace currencies. Micro-hedging programs are API-based software solutions that allow corporate treasury teams to effectively hedge their exposure to currency risk —whatever the number of transactions— with a high degree of automation, visibility, and control. They are emerging as a key element in most corporate FX hedging strategies. The versatility and ease-of-use of micro-hedging programs, even when many currency pairs are involved, are proving themselves a must-have in different setups: The first “E”: eliminate currency risk At first sight, the notion that currency risk can be removed with great precision, even when many transactions in different currency pairs are processed, may seem a bit outlandish. To understand how micro-hedging works, the notion of market monitoring plays a key role. Thanks to API connectivity, stop-loss and take-profits are set around the FX rate at which a piece of exposure known as an entry —a firm order or an invoice— is received from company systems (ERP, TMS, others). As long as the FX rate trades inside this corridor, new entries are accumulated into positions. Because each entry arrives at a different moment, and therefore at a different exchange rate, the system needs to automatically calculate the weighted average exchange rate. When either of the boundaries of the range is hit, the position is automatically hedged. From the FX risk management point of view, the benefits of this procedure include: But what about hedging precision? Here’s precisely the point. When the drill is performed during sufficiently long periods of time, something interesting happens: “Over time, the stop-loss and take-profit orders tend to offset each, resulting in fluctuations around a central point. While financial time series exhibit skewness and other complexities, the overall risk typically decreases as the process unfolds” — Andrea Perissinotto, FX Data Analyst Team Lead, Kantox And that’s how micro-hedging virtually eliminates FX risk, either in the context of transaction risk or in terms of accounting risk. The second “E”: enhance control In our blog Debunking 4 Currency Management Myths: Protecting Profit Margins in 2025, we discussed some myths surrounding FX hedging. We could have included another one: the notion that automation weakens managers’ control over their hedging programs. In fact, the opposite happens. Currency Management Automation makes it possible for finance teams to strengthen control throughout the different phases of the FX workflow. To illustrate the point, treasurers can, at any point in time: When it comes to validating exposure data, treasurers can enforce a manual validation process according to different criteria in terms of amount, maturity, and currencies. Checkpoints are also available during the trade and post-trade phases. By way of example, Nutrien, a Canadian crop inputs provider, recently announced a $220m loss on FX derivatives transactions in Brazil: “We recorded a foreign exchange loss of $220 million on foreign currency derivatives in Brazil for the second quarter of 2024 […] we have a material weakness related to our controls over derivative contract authorization in Brazil” — Nutrien The company blames “an individual outside applicable internal policy and authority”. How do automated micro-hedging programs deal with this issue? From the outset, any derivatives transaction is numerically traced back to the corresponding exposure. A fraudulent trade will thus have a very hard time progressing from the ‘pre-trade’ to the ‘trade’ phase. Traceability and control Control is also enhanced by the traceability feature of micro-hedging programs. Across the journey from entry to position, to conditional order, to operation, and to payment, each element has its own unique reference number. In addition, payments carry the operation reference within their SWIFT message, allowing funds to be traced throughout the entire payment process. Whenever a position is hedged, it is possible to trace it back to the original entries, including the exchange rate. This is called end-to-end traceability. Among other control-related tasks, it makes it possible to: The third “E”: earn more The third “E” of micro-hedging programs can be illustrated with a simple proposition: improve profit margins by always contracting in the cheapest currency. With currency risk under control, managers avoid the misplaced temptation of buying directly in their firm’s own currency. The truth is that the underlying FX risk never goes away — it is merely transferred onto suppliers, who then apply markups to protect themselves from the underlying risk. By removing this friction, markups are sidestepped, and contracting costs are reduced. This example from the Travel industry illustrates the point: (*) Note that the margin increases to 5.5% by using the forward rate of 0.9730 instead. Forward points are favourable because —as interbank interest rates are higher in the U.S. than in Europe— the exchange rate translates into a higher forward EUR value, compared to spot. This gain can be used to reduce contracting costs. The fourth “E”: embrace currencies The fourth “E” of micro-hedging programs —embrace currencies— flows from the previous three. With FX risk under control, enhanced control over the workflow, and supplier markups out of the way, managers can confidently sell in more currencies. Thanks to Multi-Dealer Platforms such as 360T, to which micro-hedging programs are connected, treasurers can execute trades —in favourable liquidity conditions— in the currencies of a number of small, but well-managed economies: SEK, NOK, CAD, AUD, NZD, SGD, and KRW. A recent Amadeus survey about consumers’ attitudes shows: For firms with international operations, the conclusion is simple: you should sell in the currency of your customers. Some of the benefits include: This is happening already. A Bloomberg News article shows evidence that currency managers are sidestepping USD to conduct business in other currencies. French firms Saint-Gobain, Bouygues Construction, Veolia, and Neoven are increasing…
Visa Exits U.S. Open Banking — What Corporate Treasurers Should Know
From Treasury Masterminds 1. Recent Developments: Visa Shutters U.S. Open Banking Unit In late August 2025, payments giant Visa decided to shut down its open banking operations in the United States. The unit had offered fintechs streamlined access to bank account data, helping with onboarding and transfers. However, heightened disputes between banks and fintech firms over data access fees ultimately prompted this retreat. Visa has instead shifted its focus toward Europe and Latin America, where regulatory frameworks mandate data sharing with authorized entities. In the U.S., the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is revising regulations to strengthen consumer control over financial data sharing, based on Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act. UPCOMING PODCAST Join us for “From Treasurer to TMS Trailblazer” with Quique Fernandez of Embat and discover how treasury leaders can shape the future of tech. Click below to register now and attend! 2. U.S. vs. EU: Open Banking Regimes in Contrast Europe (EU and UK) United States 3. Section for Treasurers: Practical Implications For corporate treasurers, these shifts hold tangible implications: Access & Integration Cost & Negotiation Dynamics Regulatory Compliance & Risk Strategic Impacts 4. Data: The Real Gold of Open Banking At its core, open banking isn’t just about APIs, payments, or fintech connectivity — it’s about data. Without reliable, high-quality data, open banking loses much of its value. For corporate treasurers, this means the real competitive advantage lies in how well you manage and leverage data flows. Those who invest in connectivity and ensure their internal data is structured, accurate, and ready will be best placed to extract value from open banking — regardless of whether the system leans toward monetization (U.S.) or mandated sharing (EU). 5. Conclusion Visa’s exit from U.S. open banking underscores the growing tension between banks and fintechs. The U.S. remains in a transitional phase, with new rules on the horizon but heavy pushback from incumbents. Europe, on the other hand, has a mature framework in place and is expanding into broader open finance models. Key takeaway for treasurers: If you operate in Europe, open banking already offers tangible opportunities for innovation and efficiency. If you’re focused on the U.S., prepare for a longer journey — monitor CFPB developments closely, ensure your treasury systems are flexible, and be ready to adapt as the landscape evolves. Also Read Join our Treasury Community Treasury Mastermind is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below to get more information. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.
5 Key Trends in Legal Entity Management and Compliance in 2025
This article is written by Treasury4 In 2025, several new trends are taking shape in the world of legal entity management and compliance—and treasurers must be prepared to adapt. Driven by digital transformation, changing regulations, and an evolving global business environment, legal entity management and compliance have never been more complex—or more critical. Staying ahead of these developing trends is crucial for maintaining agility, operational efficiency, and regulatory compliance. By anticipating these changes, you can help your organization avoid costly missteps and capitalize on opportunities to enhance operations. In this article, we’ll explore the top trends developing in legal entity management and compliance in 2025. Trend 1: Digital Transformation in Entity Management The digital revolution is reshaping how organizations manage their legal entities in several ways. A multinational corporation managing hundreds of global subsidiaries could previously spend weeks preparing for audits. Modern entity management technologies, like those mentioned above, simplify this process by allowing for greater accuracy and agility. Trend 2: Growing Regulatory Complexity and Globalization While globalization has opened new markets for businesses, it also means that those organizations must navigate constantly evolving, jurisdiction-specific laws and regulatory requirements. From tax regulations to sustainability and ESG requirements to data protection laws, staying compliant across multiple jurisdictions requires constant vigilance. For instance, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in Europe and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) in the United States have set high standards for data privacy within their specific regions. Meanwhile, local nuances in corporate governance, such as reporting formats or filing deadlines, can vary widely by jurisdiction. To address these challenges, centralized legal entity management platforms have become more critical than ever. Centralized systems ensure stakeholders can track regional requirements from one location and that all records are up to date, reducing the risk of non-compliance. Another emerging trend is closer collaboration between businesses and regulators. Organizations are leveraging technology to provide real-time updates to regulators, fostering greater transparency and trust. Centralized legal entity management platforms are also beneficial for tapping into and sharing data. Trend 3: Enhanced Data Security and Privacy In an era where more organizations than ever are experiencing data breaches, ensuring the security and privacy of sensitive entity data is paramount. New data protection regulations are on the horizon in various jurisdictions, making it imperative for organizations to stay ahead of compliance requirements. For example, stricter penalties for non-compliance with privacy laws are expected, emphasizing the need for proactive measures. Legal entity management platforms can help companies stay compliant with data security regulations and protect critical information. For instance, role-based access features ensure that only authorized personnel can view or edit sensitive information. This prevents unauthorized access, limiting the potential for breaches. It also allows employees to access role-specific tools so they can continue to do their jobs without sacrificing data security. Advanced systems also provide audit trail functionalities, which record every action taken within the platform. This feature is invaluable during regulatory audits, as it allows organizations to demonstrate compliance and trace any irregularities back to their source. Trend 4: Advanced Reporting and Compliance Monitoring Comprehensive reporting capabilities are poised to be a game-changer in legal entity management this year. As businesses grow and expand across borders, maintaining transparency has become more important than ever for stakeholders and investors. Advanced reporting tools are helping enhance this transparency. Dashboards and visual data representations offer a bird’s-eye view of compliance metrics. These tools allow stakeholders to monitor the status of filings, renewals, and other critical tasks in real time, enabling prompt, data-driven action when needed. For instance, a dashboard might highlight discrepancies between legal entity structures and bank account setups, helping teams address issues before they escalate. Organizations are also using advanced reporting tools to strengthen governance frameworks. By analyzing historical data, businesses can identify patterns and implement preventative measures to mitigate future risks. Trend 5: Talent and Expertise Challenges The legal and compliance sectors face a growing skills gap. As regulations become more intricate, the demand for professionals who can navigate these complexities is outpacing supply. We’re seeing several trends emerge in how organizations are addressing this need: Looking Ahead: The Future of Legal Entity Compliance The above trends indicate a clear trajectory toward more efficient, transparent, and secure legal entity management practices. As organizations embrace these changes, we’re seeing treasury teams embrace several key strategies: Legal entity management and compliance are at a crossroads in 2025. From digital transformation and regulatory complexity to data security and talent shortages, the trends shaping this field reflect the dynamic nature of global business operations. As we move forward, the message is clear: Organizations that embrace innovation and leverage advanced tools will lead the way in building resilient, compliant, and future-ready enterprises. Also Read Join our Treasury Community Treasury Masterminds is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.
The 3 D’s: How to Get the Best From Your Cash Forecast
This article is written by Palm We talk so much about cash forecasting and it’s importance, however how we approach this critical task has barely changed in the last 10 years. We may have added more data and reference points to help the analysis, but fundamentally we are looking at what has happened, adding in some general ledger data, the FP&A forecast and hoping for the best. The treasurer may go a step further and add their own view of the business progression to give an extra flavour. But the real science behind the numbers is rarely understood or utilised. …And we wonder why we some months we are so accurate, and others we are so wildly inaccurate it’s comical. In this blog we explore how to approach the task of cash forecasting differently. How to use the latest technology to break through into the new era of looking-ahead. The Opportunity: Where we can add real value by using the latest tools? 1. Data The data we use in our forecasts doesn’t have to be purely financial data relating to your internal operations. Think outside of the box about other external factors that effect the success of the business. Is it the weather forecast, the performance of the economy or the marketing of competitor products? Whatever it is, you can use this data to improve the quality of your cash flow forecast. 2. Details Imagine you had unlimited time to analyse every piece of data you feed into your forecast, for example, you could build in logic to understand the payment behaviour of each of your customers knowing some always pay between 3-5 days late depending one which day the invoice falls due and when their weekly payment run is. Or, a model that understands that before year end, some invoices due for payment are brought forward to limit open balance sheet positions. However, instead of spending hours analysing and creating this logic, the model understands these trends and does it for you. 3. Direction Unlike your best Treasury Analyst, your machine learning forecast model will never leave you. Therefore spending time teaching it all that you know, speaking to it directly to explain why somethings are correct and others aren’t, is a time investment that will pay off in dividends over the years. You can tell your forecast, for example, that it has misunderstood the seasonality of your business due to strange one-off behaviour and to exclude this from the its trend analysis in future. Giving this feedback regularly will also help the model learn more about the business and the trends it detects. The Technology: What do we need to achieve this? Although not new, it is surprising how few treasuries are using AI and machine learning in their day to day operations. According to the 2024 Deloitte survey, it is less than 2%. Is this because the technology is not properly understood? Or it’s application hasn’t been facilitated in a way that is accessible to treasurers? My suspicion is that it is a mix of both. What are the technologies you can use to realise the benefits we’ve outlined in the above sections? Predictive AI Using different data sets, AI can predict what will happen with the future of your cash flows. The difference between this technology and your treasury team itself, is that you can supply many different and varying data sets in different formats to feed the model. This will have a limited impact on the amount of time the forecast takes to produce however will significantly improve the accuracy. The difference between predictive AI and generative AI is that predictive AI uses existing data sets to predict what will happen in the future and is therefore most relevant for producing you cash flow forecast. Generative AI however creates new and original content, such as the commentary to support the forecast and understand the cash flows. Machine Learning Mathematical models are the foundation of machine learning, often using several at once and testing each of them until you find a blend that works. These can be refined over time to achieve the optimal solution. The Reality- What will happen when you bring these technologies into your treasury? When applying these systems and models you will be required a change your expectations of your forecast model. The advantage of using mathematical statistical models to produce your cash forecast means it will predict your cash flow for you, however you must relinquish your power to the model. You need to accept that you will not be able to click into a cell in excel and see how a number is calculated. You will not be able to “follow it through”. As many of the trends of patterns it detects are not necessarily explainable. Of course you can adjust the forecast and amend it to include the additional information you have, you could also feed it with a set of assumptions you believe to be true as guidance for the model to follow, for example, headcount is set to grow by 2% each month from now until the end of 2025 however on the most part you will not be able to see its inner workings. To become comfortable with this will take time and adjustment, building trust in the model over time and conducting regular variance analysis to pinpoint the route cause of any differences will help both you and the model. However, it is in embracing these innovations and new ways of looking at data that we can truly unlock our cash and bring efficiencies into our treasury teams. Also Read Join our Treasury Community Treasury Masterminds is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.
What If Trump Controlled the Fed? A Treasurers’ Nightmare (or Opportunity?)
From Treasury Masterminds Donald Trump has never been shy about saying the quiet part out loud. And one of his long-standing frustrations is the Federal Reserve. He wants more influence; he wants “his” Fed. But what if that actually happened? What if Trump, or any political leader, had full influence over the Fed? For treasurers, this is more than a political curiosity. It could mean a world where monetary policy shifts not on fundamentals, but on tweets, moods, or election cycles. Let’s fantasise for a moment what that world would look like. 1. Interest Rates on a Yo-Yo In a Trump-controlled Fed, interest rate decisions might become politically motivated: For treasurers, this means your hedging strategy becomes a guessing game. Forget stable forward guidance – instead, you’d live in a world of uncertainty, where risk managers become amateur political analysts. UPCOMING PODCAST Join us for “From Treasurer to TMS Trailblazer” with Quique Fernandez of Embat and discover how treasury leaders can shape the future of tech. Click below to register now and attend! 2. The Dollar as a Weapon Trump already loves to talk about “currency manipulation.” With full Fed influence, we could see direct interventions in FX markets to push the dollar up or down, depending on what fits the political script. For multinational treasurers: 3. Inflation Targeting? What Inflation Targeting? Central banks like to remind us that their mandate is “price stability.” But under political control, inflation could become a secondary concern. Imagine rates kept too low for too long, stoking inflation, simply because “growth looks good on TV.” For treasurers, this means: 4. The End of Central Bank Independence For decades, central bank independence has been a stabilising anchor. Lose that, and you lose credibility in the markets. If the Fed is seen as a political toy, we might see: That flows straight into corporate financing costs. Your next bond issue? It might come with a “Trump risk premium.” 5. Opportunity Amid the Chaos? It’s not all doom and gloom. Treasurers thrive in volatility (at least the good ones do). A Trump-influenced Fed could: The winners would be the treasurers who stop waiting for “certainty” and instead build resilience into their structures. Our 2 Cents Trump having full control of the Fed may sound like a fantasy—or a nightmare—but it raises a serious point:Treasurers cannot take central bank independence for granted anymore. Whether it’s Trump, another populist, or just political pressure creeping into monetary policy, we may be entering a new era where policy is less predictable, more volatile, and more political. And that means treasury teams need to adapt. Build flexibility, invest in systems, and prepare for the day when rate decisions are made in the Oval Office, not the Fed boardroom. Because if that day comes, you’ll want to be ready. Also Read Join our Treasury Community Treasury Mastermind is a community of professionals working in treasury management or those interested in learning more about various topics related to treasury management, including cash management, foreign exchange management, and payments. To register and connect with Treasury professionals, click [HERE] or fill out the form below to get more information. Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.