Hosted by Treasury Masterminds and Ebury
Resources from Ebury
For those wanting to dig deeper into the trends shaping de-dollarisation:
Download Ebury’s De-Dollarisation Playbook
Free FX Audit from Ebury
The final webinar of the year landed with a full house and a topic treasurers clearly can’t get enough of: the shifting role of the US dollar and what it means for hedging strategies in 2026 and beyond.
We brought together two complementary perspectives:
- Camille, FX Structurer at Ebury, joined as the market expert.
- Neicy, CFO Advisor at Angola Airlines, added the practitioner’s view from one of the world’s more complex FX environments.
Below is a breakdown of the key themes and insights for those who couldn’t join live.
The Audience Warm-Up: What’s Your Biggest USD Challenge?
We opened with a poll. Three choices, one predictable winner:
- FX volatility – by far the top concern
- Slow and costly USD cross-border payments
- Hedging strategy uncertainty – A big runner up as choice
Treasurer everywhere apparently bonded over volatility-induced stress.
The Real Story Behind De-Dollarisation
Despite dramatic headlines, de-dollarisation is not a sudden-collapse scenario. Both speakers clarified:
The shift away from the USD is slow, policy-driven, and structural.
Key drivers behind the trend
- Geopolitics: Especially in China’s push to promote RMB settlement.
- Commercial logic: Some suppliers avoid USD to reduce pricing friction.
- Cost efficiency: Forward points can favour EUR or other currencies.
Camille highlighted a major behaviour shift in markets:
The old correlation between global volatility and a stronger USD is breaking. Asset managers have started hedging USD exposures they historically left open, and those flows helped push EURUSD higher in 2024.
On the Ground: How Treasurers Are Actually Paying
Neicy gave an unfiltered view from Angola, where USD scarcity can slow or halt critical operations.
Key takeaways:
- Operations are forced to use EUR or ZAR when USD isn’t available
- Payments that used to take five days now clear in 24 hours
- Central bank liquidity dictates what’s possible
- Treasury teams negotiate supplier-by-supplier, transaction-by-transaction
It’s not pretty, but it works. And it shows how far treasurers must stretch when macro conditions refuse to play along.
The Blind Spot: “Dollar In, Dollar Out” Isn’t Zero Exposure
A common misconception: Using USD on both the buy and sell side equals a natural hedge.
Camille explained the trap: If your counterparty’s functional currency is not USD, they carry FX risk too. And they often hide that risk in pricing.
One example: Chinese suppliers often increase RMB prices when USD weakens but rarely lower them in the opposite scenario. The result is an invisible premium.
Switching to local currency invoicing (RMB, EUR, BRL…) can strip out these markups.
Should Treasurers Hedge More in Local Currencies?
Often, yes.
Benefits:
- Lower prices from suppliers
- Less embedded FX margin
- More predictable economics
RMB liquidity is now strong, so the old argument of “difficult to hedge” no longer really applies.
Clients who switched saw reduced costs and clearer pricing. Yes, renegotiation takes effort. But that effort pays for itself.
Hedging Strategies Treasurers Are Turning To
2025 saw a noticeable shift:
1. Layered hedging over simple rolling hedges
Spreads timing risk, reduces exposure to single bad entry points.
2. Option-based structures resurface
Treasurers want:
- Worst-case rate certainty
- Ability to benefit from favourable moves
Options provide that balance.
3. Greater focus on cost of carry
Forward points have moved.
Hedging long tenors is now cheaper than earlier in the year.
4. Multi-currency optimisation
If USD hedging is expensive while BRL or EUR hedging is favourable… adjust the portfolio.
Treasurer Reality Check
Neicy made one of the session’s most candid points:
“When we don’t know, we don’t do.”
Many emerging-market treasuries simply lack stable markets or instruments needed to hedge conventionally.
Their main levers:
- Cashflow visibility
- Commercial negotiation
- Operational flexibility
Sometimes survival absorbs the full definition of “hedging.”
Final Advice for Treasurers Heading Into 2026
From Neicy
- Prioritise learning
- Explore new tools and technology
- Bring alternative solutions to partners and regulators
- Strengthen negotiating positions
- Keep strategies simple and workable
From Camille
- Build a strategy
- Stick to the strategy
- Understand the cost of flexibility
- Avoid emotional or reactive hedging
Together their message was simple: Treasury is changing. Markets are changing. Hedging strategies must evolve too.
Watch the Full Webinar Recording
If you want the full conversation, audience Q&A, and all the nuance, the full session is now available on Spotify.