The impact of Trump / US election on FX rates

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    Patrick Kunz
    Do you factor in events like the US elections on FX volatility and your hedging strategy ?

    It is hard to determine the impact. Yes it might increases volatility but that can work both ways. In my opinion a reason to INCREASE your hedging rate to lock in current rates.

    What are other expert thoughts on this ?

    Treasury for champions
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    It depends on how prescriptive your hedging policy is. A well-designed and clearly articulated hedging policy forms the foundation for making hedging decisions. These decisions should be guided by policy objectives and rules, taking into account specific risks, including those associated with political or market events.

    In times of increased uncertainty, the risks are obviously greater. Therefore, it makes sense to increase hedges, especially if the cost of hedging is relatively low. It is worth highlighting that EURUSD FX vols are not far from all-time lows, which in itself shows that markets are not focused on politics just yet and are rather driven by the ups-n-downs of the monetary policy divergence/ the US exceptionalism.

    Back to the original question, it is also crucial to distinguish between understanding the potential impact of events and personal opinions of what could happen. I have witnessed many cases where individuals, both in banks and corporate treasuries, allowed their personal views to cloud their decision-making process. Political events can evoke emotions that have no place in a rational and calculated approach to hedging.

    Remember, the foreign exchange markets swiftly incorporate new information into prevailing prices. Prepare yourself by understanding potential outcomes and their impact, follow ongoing developments and communicate proactively with other stakeholders.

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